Sox Sitting Pretty Heading Home to Face New York
As the season passes the first quarter mark, it seems appropriate to take stock of the hometown team’s progress thus far. After 41 games, the Red Sox stand at 25-16 (a .610 winning percentage), first in the Division, and 1-1/2 games ahead of their hated rivals of New York.
Things are looking bright for Boston. And they should only get better.
The Sox have played a quarter of the season without their new centerfielder/leadoff hitter and their fifth starter. Manny Ramirez has only 7 home runs, 19 RBI, and a slugging percentage south of .500. Jason Varitek is hitting .235, and Alex Gonzalez can’t find the Mendoza line with a roadmap and headlamp. Still, this team is tops in the Division, has the 4th best record in baseball, and stands 3rd in ESPN.com’s Power Rankings.
And it’s not because a bunch of other players are hitting or pitching over their heads to pick up the slack.
Certainly Mike Lowell (.336 BA, 20 2B, 6 HR, 27 RBI, .391 OBP, .610 SLG, 1.001 OPS) has been a pleasant surprise given his dismal 2005 offensive season (.236 BA, 8 HR, .658 OPS), but most keen observers — and certainly the Red Sox — knew the right-handed slugger was a better hitter than that. He is on pace for a career year but is doing it while thoroughly enjoying the confines of Fenway park, where he is hitting .351 with 13 of his 20 doubles, which should not come as a shock. Otherwise, Kevin Youkilis (.318 BA, .425 OBP, .483 SLG, .908 OPS) is living up to the potential many predicted he would realize with regular playing time. The rest of the offense is totally at or below expectations.
From the mound, Schilling (6-2, 4.17 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 52 K, 58-1/3 IP) has rebounded for a season in which he never had full strength following his 2004 ankle injury. Many had written him off — folly that Schilling and those in the know smugly chuckle at. Beckett (6-1, 4.19 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 40 K, 58 IP) has been almost identically solid, if not spectacular, in the number 2 slot. Both aces have been brilliant at times, and the low number of baserunners they have allowed suggests improved ERAs to come. Wakefield (4.17 ERA, 1.32 WHIP) has been his typically solid self, while Clement (5.36 ERA, 1.57 WHIP) has continued to struggle. Wells (15-7, 4.45 ERA in 2005; 8-1, 3.07 at Fenway), if his knees hold up, should be giving the Sox a shot in the arm soon.
The bullpen has been lights out, as those with a lower proclivity for panic, might have predicted. Though Foulke lost the closer’s role early, Jonathan Papelbon (0.42 ERA, 0.63 WHIP, 19 K, 22-1/3 IP), as many predicted he could, has been spectacular, converting 15 of 15 save opportunity against a single loss, as Sox stopper. Meanwhile, Foulke (3.47 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 19 K, 23-1/3 IP) has recovered nicely from a rough start to serve as a strong set-up complement to Mike Timlin (0.96 ERA, 1.13 WHIP), whose continued his strong run from last season.
Perhaps as important as anything, the Red Sox are among the tops in the Majors with a .989 fielding percentage this season and only 13 errors. And this is no coincidence. Moves in the off-season to acquire Lowell, Gonzalez, Loretta, and Crisp all constituted important defensive upgrades. The entire infield (with Youkilis) is redesigned and is preventing plenty of runs against. Crisp should add to that effort when he returns to center.
A couple hundred miles down the Eastern seaboard in New York, then Yankees are suffering with numerous pitching question marks and an abysmal defense, neither of which was unexpected, but both of which have been exacerbated by injuries and old age.
Carl Pavano has not been healthy since last season and will have surgery Thursday to remove a bone chip from his elbow that will sideline him around three months. Shawn Chacon (4-1, 5.21 ERA, 1.68 WHIP) has also hit the DL until June 1st. That leaves the Yankees with lone star Mussina (6-1, 2.57 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 59 K, 66-2/3 IP) and Johnson (5-4, 5.62, 1.39 ERA, 41 K, 57-2/3 IP), who has struggled mightily and may be losing the race to Father Time, at the top of a rotation that follows with Chien-Ming Wang (4-1, 3.79 ERA, 1.26 WHIP), washed up Jaret Wright (1-3, 4.94 ERA, 1.54 WHIP), and fill-in Aaron Small (8.59 ERA, 2.05 WHIP), who defied all statistical probability to have a strong enough run at the end of last season to find his way onto the Yankees shallow pitching depth chart.
Hideki Matsui’s broken wrist will not only keep him out until late August at least but also force slow and rapidly aging Bernie Williams into regular OF duty — not something the Yankees would prefer from an offensive or defensive standpoint (whether or not helped Melky Cabrera, who has 4 errors in left field in 15 chances). The Yankees are apparently hoping that reclamation project Terrence Long, who was cut from Cincinnati’s AAA affiliate will magically help the cause. (Um, yeah, good luck with that.)
Meanwhile, in the infield, Alex Rodriguez has an astounding 8 errors — one ahead of the 7 combined by Jason Giambi and Andy Phillips at first. Jeter, by far the most overrated defender in baseball, meanwhile has 4 errors, as does Robinson Cano. For those counting at home, that’s pace for almost 100 errors by the infield (minus catcher and pitcher) alone.
There’s no question that even without Matsui, and with Sheffield returning soon, the Yankees will continue to put runs on the board. But equally certain is the fact that, barring BIG changes, this is NOT a team bound to win games in the post-season.
The Red Sox will have the opportunity to take advantage of these Yankee weaknesses starting tonight, as the rivals kick off a three-game set at Fenway Park at 7:05 pm when Curt Schilling goes for career win number 199 against Chien-Ming Wang.
Pujols’s Pace
You may recall that I reported last month on the staggering pace at which Albert Pujols is hitting home runs, suggesting that he might just have a chance at Bonds’s single-season record of 73. (The Answer is Albert Pujols, Apr. 30, 2006, at http://bostondownlow.mlblogs.com/my_weblog/2006/04/the_answer_is_a.html)
Perhaps you scoffed at the notion. Well, it’s still early, but with 22 HR in 44 games, Pujols has not slowed down and is still on pace to hit 81 home runs…
On Bonds
ESPN’s Page 2 features a fascinating account by Patrick Hruby of just how many home runs Barry Bonds might have hit to date — and why — if it weren’t for the assistance of performance enhancing drugs. It’s a must read, even if you are sick to death of hearing about Barry Bonds, that discusses a lot of interesting physics (at a lay person’s level) about baseball:
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=hruby/060512
(The estimate is 616.)
By the way, it’s been called to my attention by Lisa and her most excellent blog at http://forloveoftheastros.mlblogs.com/ that more than a few people have been discussing Bonds’s recent drilling by Astros reliever Russ Springer shortly before Bond’s 714th.
With regard to Springer hitting Barry Bonds and the Houston fans giving Springer a standing ovation in response, I fully support both actions (assuming Springer was not aiming at, and has enough control not to hit, Bond’s head). Some might argue that if there were true and absolute justice in the world (not to put the burden on Springer), that the incident would have ended Bonds’s baseball career — short of Ruth and short of him disgracing America’s pastime for another instant.
And the argument would not be based on Barry Bonds’s use of steroids, as many other players have done, or Bonds’s ascension in the record books, but because of the kind of person Barry Bonds is — a despicable one — as depicted in this article by Dan Wetzel of Yahoo! Sports:
Sox Spank Yanks for Fifth Straight Win
The Red Sox, assisted by two errors from Alex Rodriguez and one by Melky Cabrera, chased Randy Johnson early last night as Josh Beckett continued his dominance of the Yankees in a 14-3 Boston win that leaves the Sox in sole possession of first place. The win was Boston’s fifth straight, and the 16-hit attack was a season high for the Sox.
After having some trouble early and giving up a 2-run home run on a 3-2 pitch to Jason Giambi in the first, Beckett settled down to retire the next 12 batters in order. Beckett finished the game with 7 IP, 3 ER, and 7 K, bringing his record this season to 4-1. Johnson, meanwhile, struggled for the fourth time in five starts, lasting just 3-2/3 innings and giving up 7 runs (2 earned) on 5 hits, 5 walks, and 2 wild pitches. New York’s $16 million per year hurler has an ERA of 5.01 on the season and was booed roundly by the New York fans as he left the mound last night.
The Sox offense featured a balanced attack. Ramirez connected off Aaron Small for his sixth homer of the year in the 6th, following Alex Gonzalez’s 3-run shot off Small in the 5th. Gonzalez’s home run was his first since August 5, 2005 with Florida. Mark Loretta contributed 3 hits and 2 RBI, while Mike Lowell hit his Major League-leading 18th and 19th doubles and scored 2 runs. Lowell’s last eight hits have all been doubles. He leads the Sox with a .339 average and is second to Ortiz (.576) with a .557 slugging percentage.
Boston has now scored 176 runs while allowing 153 this season, as the offense is finally starting to come alive. Look for this trend to continue. This team has the punch to hit with anybody.
The Red Sox stand at 20-12 and face the Yankees again tonight in the Stadium as ace Curt Schilling (5-1, 3.02) goes for his 198th career win against Mike Mussina (5-1, 2.35).
Lowell Ahead of the Fans’ Learning Curve
Quietly, Mike Lowell is putting together quite a season for the Boston Red Sox. If he keeps up, he may well be worth every bit of the $9 million the Red Sox took on in his annual salary when they traded for Josh Beckett and Lowell from the Marlins this off season.
Lowell is leading the Majors in doubles with 17 and is hitting .339 with a .400 OBP and .542 SLG (.942 OPS). Those are big time numbers offensively, and Lowell is providing a slick glove at third base as well (coming off a Gold Glove in the N.L. last season). Strangely, the Fenway faithful seem slow to warm up to Lowell, though after a hot weekend, this seems to be changing. It could be because he came in as a guy who hit only .236 last season and who the Red Sox were going to have to pay $18 million over two years as a premium for nabbing phenom Beckett. Even as it’s looking like fair market value (for now), the fans have been slow to catch on.
Lowell has only 2 home runs through Sunday and hasn’t won any games with a walk-off of any kind (a la Mark Loretta, who has enjoyed significant good will despite a .240 average). And, of course, Lowell doesn’t have the long-standing popularity of other proven Sox regulars such as Manny, Ortiz, Varitek, or Nixon. But this season, Lowell has outperformed all but Ortiz and should be hitting in the number 5 spot in the order before long if he keeps up.
The fans should stand up and take notice. His teammates have already, and the rest of the league is sure to do so.
Ortiz’s Shot
Last night, watching the game from the first baseline (and freezing my butt off from the 45-degree temperatures and the wind), I estimated (with my little brother as my witness) that Ortiz’s home run would have gone about 450 feet on a normal night. It turns out it would have gone 460.
The Boston Globe reports that Greg Rybarczyk, who created the Hit Tracker device that, among other things, tabulates home run distances, reported that the "standard distance" for the 395-foot (actual distance) shot projects to 460 feet. Standard distance corrects for atmospheric conditions and assumes no wind (head or tail) and 70-degree temperature. Ortiz’s shot left the bat at a blazing 120.7 miles per hour on a 37.7 degree angle but into a 16 mph headwind from center, which knocked it back 54 feet. The low temperature cost the ball another 12. Only ten balls have had a greater standard distance this season (and I don’t know, but would bet, most or all of them were not hit off a soft tosser like Myers). Here’s something to chew on: Rybarczyk reported that had there been a 16 mph tailwind, the ball would have travelled 509 feet and landed about 25 rows up Section 37.
To put this in perspective, the longest ball ever hit within the confines of Fenway Park traveled 502 feet off the bat of Ted Williams in 1946 (an MVP year for the Splinter). Manny Ramirez had a blast off one of the left field light towers in 2001 that supposedly traveled 501 feet, but this "estimated distance" seems to be a thinly veiled public relations figure in deference to Williams. Last year, Ramirez hit one that cleared the light tower, but the Red Sox offered no distance projection on that ball.
There is, of course, some inherent imprecision to the measurement of these home runs, as they tell how far the ball actually traveled before making touching down in the stands, bullpen, etc. rather than where the ball would land based on its trajectory when it came down to ground zero. For example, Manny hit a ball last year over everything that ended up on the Commuter Rail train tracks next to the Mass Pike (off a hop off the roof of the building across Lansdowne Street), but no one knows for sure how far it traveled. The estimate is 468 feet, but that was still only the distance to estimated landing spot on the building top. It’s actually somewhat unfortunate for Manny that he’s right-handed. Hitting from the left side, some these balls would likely have surpassed the Splinter’s mark without any question. It may, then, be up to Ortiz to take a shot at it.
Suffice to say that Big Papi’s ball of Myers last night was absolutely smoked. Just imagine what Ortiz might do off someone throwing in the mid-90s on a warm day with no headwind…
Booing Johnny Damon: A Response to Sterno
MLB.com journalist Casey Stern today expressed regret and embarrassment at the reception Johnny Damon received at Fenway Park last night (see Fenway FO-WHA? at http://sterno.mlblogs.com). I felt compelled to respond with an alternative view:
Sterno,
You need to distinguish between fans booing Damon for being a Yankee and their condemnation of him as a person. When he tipped his cap last night in his first at bat, almost everyone in Fenway Park cheered loudly. I did so myself. Damon understands that the booing is just part of the fun of the rivalry, and, based on his comments, he understands that’s it and nothing more. He’s not taking it any more personally than do most fans believe that he is a terrible person for going to the Yankees.
Damon had a choice. He could have taken $10 million per year (more money than a normal person would know what to do with, particularly after what he’s already made) or he could go for the highest paying offer. He did the latter. The Red Sox were smart to draw the line because Damon is not worth $13 million per year. Ortiz chose to extend his contract with the Sox for significantly less money than he is worth — ironically, for the same amount over the same span as Damon. For that, and so many reasons, the fans adore him.
From Damon’s perspective, like Pedro’s, he may have taken the Sox refusal to bid up as a sign of disrespect. That’s his prerogative. Is he greedy? Each person will make his or her own judgment (or just refrain from doing so).
But the bottom line is that the fans don’t have to like Damon’s choice. They can boo him for making it. They can boo him for being a Yankee. It’s not equivalent to hatred or renunciation of all the incredible things he did here (as evidenced by the ovation he got when he tipped his cap). It’s just recognition of the fact that the money from the Yankees (be it because of perceived respect or dollar value) was more important to him than staying here with us.
It’s all in good fun from most fans. Fortunately, Johnny himself recognizes that.
Sox Rock Yankees in Damon’s Return
Only in Boston and New York do you get 19 playoff games before the regular season ends. Last night, the Red Sox and Yankees kicked off the first game of the season series, and it was a classic before the game even started.
The contest marked the return of former Sox All-Star and 2004 playoff hero, Johnny Damon, who signed as a free agent with the Yankees in the off season for $52 million over four years, as the Sox failed to make a bid close to competing with their Division rivals. Of course, the turn of events led to a panoply of less than tasteful t-shirts, many of which were proudly exhibited last night. One choice selection was a shirt that read: "Johnny Damon. Looks like Jesus. Acts like Judas. Throws like Mary." You have to love this town.
Also returning — in dramatic fashion — was Doug Mirabelli, reacquired by trade from San Diego. Mirabelli’s plane landed at 6:48 pm last night (17 minutes before game time), where it was met by a State Police escort that whisked Mirabelli directly to the parked in 12 minutes. It’s believed the Sox backstop put on his uniform in the car on the way to the park. Varitek was actually penciled in to start the game as it was unclear that Mirabelli would make it. From the stands, it looked like Varitek, in fact, would start the game, as he warmed up Wake and came in from the pen with him at about 7:00. At around 7:05, however, Mirabelli came jogging out of the clubhouse onto the field to an incredible ovation by the (observant and informed) Fenway Faithful. He may have been wearing Varitek’s catcher’s equipment. In any case, he entered the game with no warmup, just in time to take Wakefield warmup tosses from the mound.
Not to be outdone by way of dramatic entrance, Johnny Damon, who had already been booed mercilessly when he was announced in the starting lineups, led off for the Yankees. With the boo-birds already in full chirp as Damon reached the plate, however, he showed a true sign of class by tipping his cap to all sides of the stadium, turning the boos to cheers of regonition for his respect and all that he did, in fact, do for this organization and the fans. After that fleeting moment, both Damon and the fans knew there would be no return from his new status: Enemy of the Nation.
As it turned out, Damon went quietly this night with an 0-4 performance. The closest the Yanks’ centerfielder came to reaching base was on a dribbler between the mound and first that Wakefield fielded before diving to tag Damon on his way down the baseline. Round one to the Red Sox, but it’s unlikely that’s the best we’ll see from Damon in the remaining 18 games.
The story of the night really, though, may have been a split between the weather and a less publicized return to Fenway. Though the whole story could not be accurately told from watching TV or listening to the radio, from a first-hand vantage point, the wind was unbelievable. It was blowing in strong from center ALL night, and it seemed to grow in strength as the game progressed. By the late innings, the flag pole itself was shaking violently. It was easily the strongest wind I have ever witnessed at Fenway Park.
At least five different balls were absolutely tattooed, none of which amounted in anything more than a fly out because anything hit in the air was completely swept up and knocked down by the wind. More than one play was made much less than routine as a result, including Derek Jeter’s miscue of a Trot Nixon pop-up behind shortstop that had the Yankees’ captain turning around in circles before the ball dropped behind him in shallow left-center.
And so the game went, without much offense. After five innings with three hits for the Yankees and six for the Red Sox, the game was knotted at 3, whiere it remained until the eighth inning. It seemed the only way to get a hit was to single on a low line over the heads of the infielders without putting the ball in to high in the air for it to get caught up and pushed down. Watching the game live, the consensus was that it would simply not be possible to hit a ball out of the park.
Enter David Ortiz. After Mark Loretta singled in a run to put Boston on top 4-3, former Sox and current Yankees lefty specialist, Mike Myers came in to face Boston’s DH extraordinarre with two runners on and two out. Having worked from behind to get to a full count on Ortiz, Myers put one pitch where he shouldn’t have. Ortiz let fly and absolutely crushed the Myers offering out to right-center. By this point in the game, the wind was so strong that the thought of the flag pole becoming dislodged from its perch on the centerfield wall had actually crossed my mind, and it just didn’t seem possible that any ball could make it out of any part of the park. But the ball that Ortiz punished cut through the wind and carried…and carried…and carried until Johnny Damon and Bubba Crosby, who had converged on the corner of the outfield bullpen, watched helplessly as it sailed over the wall and into the Red Sox bullpen. Jonathan Papelbon, who was warming in anticipation of what all previously believed would be a save situation caught the ball and threw it into the bleachers as the fans went completely bezerk. 7-3, Red Sox – Ortiz a hero again.
By the time Papelbon came on in the top of the ninth to close it out in what had become a non-save situation, the masses in the park, still packed despite 45 degree temperatures and a nasty wind-chill, were confident the game was in hand. Pap promptly struck out A-Rod swinging on three pitches, got a weak pop-up to third from Matsui, and struck out Posada swinging.
What a game.
The Sox are in first place at 15-11, a game ahead of New York (13-11), entering tonight’s contest in which Josh Beckett (3-1, 4.50) will face off against Shawn Chacon (3-1, 4.56), weather permitting. Stay tuned for more drama.
Rivalry, Part One: Who’s happy return will it be?
The Red Sox and Yankees kick off the first part of their 19-installment (minimum) rivalry tonight at Fenway Park when Johnny Damon returns to Boston for the first time as a Yankee, and freshly re-acquired catcher and Tim Wakefield specialist Doug Mirabelli comes home to catch the Sox knuckleballer. Both Damon and Mirabelli could figure importantly in the result in this clash of the titans who sit tied atop the Division.
Mirabelli returns not a moment too soon, as Wakefield, who had thrown 10 passed balls past Mirabelli’s replacement, Josh Bard, takes the mound tonight against Boston’s hated rivals. The Sox new, old backup backstop was re-obtained from San Diego for Bard, minor league pitcher Cla Meredith, and cash.
Damon, has catalyzed they Yankees offense as the new leadoff man in New York, hitting .312 with a .905 OPS and 22 runs scored. He will return to center stage at Fenway hoping to channel some of his bitterness that the Sox let him go in the form of a victory for his new team.
The Sox hope to get their sluggish offense started tonight against the Bronx Bombers, who have scored a Division-leading 144 runs (to the Sox 117). Many of Boston’s starting positional players have struggled at the plate with Mark Loretta hitting .218 (.579 OPS), Gonzalez hitting .186 (.518 OPS), and Varitek hitting .250 (.720 OPS). Manny is now hitting .276 (.865 OPS — lowly for him) but is at least showing signs of improvement with 4 homers in his last 9 games. The Sox have hit just .256 as a team with a .353 OBP and .416 SLG, compared to New York at .299 with a .395 OBP and .495 SLG.
Boston is coming off dropping two of three to Tampa, including a 5-4 loss on a strong pitching performance by Rays ace lefty, Scott Kazmir (10 Ks, 1 ER in 7 IP), against Curt Schilling (9 Ks, 3 ER in 6 IP) yesterday. The Sox nearly came back with back-to-back solo shots in the ninth to Mike Lowell (who’s been excellent at .318//.371/.511 by the way) and Wily Mo Pena. The Yankees, meanwhile, took the last two of a three-game set against Toronto. On Saturday, Damon hit two home runs.
Wakefield (1-4, 3.90 ERA) will take the mound against Chien-Ming Wang (1-1, 4.80 ERA). The atmosphere at Fenway is sure to be electric.
The Answer is Albert Pujols
Don’t look now, but the greatest home run chase this season may not be Barry Bonds’s tainted pursuit of Ruth and Aaron. Instead it might just be Albert Pujols’s pursuit of Bonds himself. The Cardinals slugger broke a 1-1 tie last night, sending St. Louis to victory with his 14th home run of the month, breaking the MLB record for homers in April.
Bonds hit a staggering 73 home runs in the 2001 season aided by steroids. Pujols, one of the game’s model citizens and perhaps the new face of Major League Baseball, is currently on pace to hit 95.
Of course, the Reds are also on pace to win 115 games.
But what makes Pujols’s effort to keep up the pace different is that he actually has the talent to pull it off. Consider that Pujols has tremendous natural size and strength (at 6’3", 225 lbs. compared to Bonds’s steroid-assisted 6’2", 235 lbs.) and is a career .333 hitter. He’s hit .359, .331, and .330 the past three seasons. And Pujols is 26 years old. Talk about a positive development projection.
Other sluggers such as Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz, Jim Thome, Alex Rodriguez, and Adam Dunn also have titanic power, but none can match the ability that Pujols has to make solid contact so consistently. And to hit 74 home runs, contact rate is probably the more important — or at least rate-limiting — part of equation.
Bonds hit .328 in 2001 when he smacked 73 home runs, and Pujols exceeds Bonds’s ability to make contact (at least through that point in Bonds’s career). Entering what are traditionally believed to be a player’s best performance years, it is not unreasonable to expect both power growth and contact improvement from Pujols. We already know he is capable of hitting .360. With the contact rate that underlies that kind of batting average and the kind of power Pujols has displayed over the first month of the season (in which he’s hit .350 with a .925 slugging percentage), 74 home runs, if ever-improbable, is not at all out of the question.
In a season in which baseball is struggling to come to grips with what Barry Bonds is about to accomplish in surpassing the legendary Babe Ruth on the all-time home run list, imagine the effect of Pujols eclipsing the tainted mark of Bonds. It sure would help heal that huge black eye that Bonds is to the game — and help restore some credibility to the hallowed record books. It will be quite some time before Pujols even has a chance to come through and clean up Bonds’s career home run mark (and the record should Bonds pass Aaron). Averaging 37 HR per year for 15 years, including this one, would put Pujols at 756 after playing through age 40 (to date, he’s averaged 40.2 in his first five seasons). That’s an impressive rate to uphold over a long haul in which injuries, labor disputes, performance decline, or God knows what else could happen to derail him.
For now, we can hope Pujols wipes out the asterisk-tagged seasonal record and helps lift the pall Bonds has cast over the 2006 season.
Only 60 more home runs to go…
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