The Answer is Albert Pujols

Don't look now, but the greatest home run chase this season may not be Barry Bonds's tainted pursuit of Ruth and Aaron.  Instead it might just be Albert Pujols's pursuit of Bonds himself.  The Cardinals slugger broke a 1-1 tie last night, sending St. Louis to victory with his 14th home run of the month, breaking the MLB record for homers in April. 

Bonds hit a staggering 73 home runs in the 2001 season aided by steroids.  Pujols, one of the game's model citizens and perhaps the new face of Major League Baseball, is currently on pace to hit 95.

Of course, the Reds are also on pace to win 115 games. 

But what makes Pujols's effort to keep up the pace different is that he actually has the talent to pull it off.  Consider that Pujols has tremendous natural size and strength (at 6'3", 225 lbs. compared to Bonds's steroid-assisted 6'2", 235 lbs.) and is a career .333 hitter.  He's hit .359, .331, and .330 the past three seasons.  And Pujols is 26 years old.  Talk about a positive development projection.

Other sluggers such as Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz, Jim Thome, Alex Rodriguez, and Adam Dunn also have titanic power, but none can match the ability that Pujols has to make solid contact so consistently.  And to hit 74 home runs, contact rate is probably the more important -- or at least rate-limiting -- part of equation.

Bonds hit .328 in 2001 when he smacked 73 home runs, and Pujols exceeds Bonds's ability to make contact (at least through that point in Bonds's career).  Entering what are traditionally believed to be a player's best performance years, it is not unreasonable to expect both power growth and contact improvement from Pujols.  We already know he is capable of hitting .360.  With the contact rate that underlies that kind of batting average and the kind of power Pujols has displayed over the first month of the season (in which he's hit .350 with a .925 slugging percentage), 74 home runs, if ever-improbable, is not at all out of the question.

In a season in which baseball is struggling to come to grips with what Barry Bonds is about to accomplish in surpassing the legendary Babe Ruth on the all-time home run list, imagine the effect of Pujols eclipsing the tainted mark of Bonds.  It sure would help heal that huge black eye that Bonds is to the game -- and help restore some credibility to the hallowed record books.  It will be quite some time before Pujols even has a chance to come through and clean up Bonds's career home run mark (and the record should Bonds pass Aaron).  Averaging 37 HR per year for 15 years, including this one, would put Pujols at 756 after playing through age 40 (to date, he's averaged 40.2 in his first five seasons).  That's an impressive rate to uphold over a long haul in which injuries, labor disputes, performance decline, or God knows what else could happen to derail him.

For now, we can hope Pujols wipes out the asterisk-tagged seasonal record and helps lift the pall Bonds has cast over the 2006 season.

Only 60 more home runs to go...