Sox Sitting Pretty Heading Home to Face New York

As the season passes the first quarter mark, it seems appropriate to take stock of the hometown team's progress thus far.  After 41 games, the Red Sox stand at 25-16 (a .610 winning percentage), first in the Division, and 1-1/2 games ahead of their hated rivals of New York.

Things are looking bright for Boston.  And they should only get better.

The Sox have played a quarter of the season without their new centerfielder/leadoff hitter and their fifth starter.  Manny Ramirez has only 7 home runs, 19 RBI, and a slugging percentage south of .500.  Jason Varitek is hitting .235, and Alex Gonzalez can't find the Mendoza line with a roadmap and headlamp.  Still, this team is tops in the Division, has the 4th best record in baseball, and stands 3rd in ESPN.com's Power Rankings. 

And it's not because a bunch of other players are hitting or pitching over their heads to pick up the slack. 

Certainly Mike Lowell (.336 BA, 20 2B, 6 HR, 27 RBI, .391 OBP, .610 SLG, 1.001 OPS) has been a pleasant surprise given his dismal 2005 offensive season (.236 BA, 8 HR, .658 OPS), but most keen observers -- and certainly the Red Sox -- knew the right-handed slugger was a better hitter than that.  He is on pace for a career year but is doing it while thoroughly enjoying the confines of Fenway park, where he is hitting .351 with 13 of his 20 doubles, which should not come as a shock.  Otherwise, Kevin Youkilis (.318 BA, .425 OBP, .483 SLG, .908 OPS) is living up to the potential many predicted he would realize with regular playing time.  The rest of the offense is totally at or below expectations.

From the mound, Schilling (6-2, 4.17 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 52 K, 58-1/3 IP) has rebounded for a season in which he never had full strength following his 2004 ankle injury.  Many had written him off -- folly that Schilling and those in the know smugly chuckle at.  Beckett (6-1, 4.19 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 40 K, 58 IP) has been almost identically solid, if not spectacular, in the number 2 slot.  Both aces have been brilliant at times, and the low number of baserunners they have allowed suggests improved ERAs to come.  Wakefield (4.17 ERA, 1.32 WHIP) has been his typically solid self, while Clement (5.36 ERA, 1.57 WHIP) has continued to struggle.  Wells (15-7, 4.45 ERA in 2005; 8-1, 3.07 at Fenway), if his knees hold up, should be giving the Sox a shot in the arm soon.

The bullpen has been lights out, as those with a lower proclivity for panic, might have predicted.  Though Foulke lost the closer's role early, Jonathan Papelbon (0.42 ERA, 0.63 WHIP, 19 K, 22-1/3 IP), as many predicted he could, has been spectacular, converting 15 of 15 save opportunity against a single loss, as Sox stopper.  Meanwhile, Foulke (3.47 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 19 K, 23-1/3 IP) has recovered nicely from a rough start to serve as a strong set-up complement to Mike Timlin (0.96 ERA, 1.13 WHIP), whose continued his strong run from last season.

Perhaps as important as anything, the Red Sox are among the tops in the Majors with a .989 fielding percentage this season and only 13 errors.  And this is no coincidence.  Moves in the off-season to acquire Lowell, Gonzalez, Loretta, and Crisp all constituted important defensive upgrades.  The entire infield (with Youkilis) is redesigned and is preventing plenty of runs against.  Crisp should add to that effort when he returns to center.

A couple hundred miles down the Eastern seaboard in New York, then Yankees are suffering with numerous pitching question marks and an abysmal defense, neither of which was unexpected, but both of which have been exacerbated by injuries and old age. 

Carl Pavano has not been healthy since last season and will have surgery Thursday to remove a bone chip from his elbow that will sideline him around three months.  Shawn Chacon (4-1, 5.21 ERA, 1.68 WHIP) has also hit the DL until June 1st.  That leaves the Yankees with lone star Mussina (6-1, 2.57 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 59 K, 66-2/3 IP) and Johnson (5-4, 5.62, 1.39 ERA, 41 K, 57-2/3 IP), who has struggled mightily and may be losing the race to Father Time, at the top of a rotation that follows with Chien-Ming Wang (4-1, 3.79 ERA, 1.26 WHIP), washed up Jaret Wright (1-3, 4.94 ERA, 1.54 WHIP), and fill-in Aaron Small (8.59 ERA, 2.05 WHIP), who defied all statistical probability to have a strong enough run at the end of last season to find his way onto the Yankees shallow pitching depth chart.

Hideki Matsui's broken wrist will not only keep him out until late August at least but also force slow and rapidly aging Bernie Williams into regular OF duty -- not something the Yankees would prefer from an offensive or defensive standpoint (whether or not helped Melky Cabrera, who has 4 errors in left field in 15 chances).  The Yankees are apparently hoping that reclamation project Terrence Long, who was cut from Cincinnati's AAA affiliate will magically help the cause.  (Um, yeah, good luck with that.)

Meanwhile, in the infield, Alex Rodriguez has an astounding 8 errors -- one ahead of the 7 combined by Jason Giambi and Andy Phillips at first.  Jeter, by far the most overrated defender in baseball, meanwhile has 4 errors, as does Robinson Cano.  For those counting at home, that's pace for almost 100 errors by the infield (minus catcher and pitcher) alone.

There's no question that even without Matsui, and with Sheffield returning soon, the Yankees will continue to put runs on the board.  But equally certain is the fact that, barring BIG changes, this is NOT a team bound to win games in the post-season.

The Red Sox will have the opportunity to take advantage of these Yankee weaknesses starting tonight, as the rivals kick off a three-game set at Fenway Park at 7:05 pm when Curt Schilling goes for career win number 199 against Chien-Ming Wang.