Things are looking bright for Boston. And they should only get better.
The Sox have played a quarter of the season without their new centerfielder/leadoff hitter and their fifth starter. Manny Ramirez has only 7 home runs, 19 RBI, and a slugging percentage south of .500. Jason Varitek is hitting .235, and Alex Gonzalez can't find the Mendoza line with a roadmap and headlamp. Still, this team is tops in the Division, has the 4th best record in baseball, and stands 3rd in ESPN.com's Power Rankings.
And it's not because a bunch of other players are hitting or pitching over their heads to pick up the slack.
Certainly Mike Lowell (.336 BA, 20 2B, 6 HR, 27 RBI, .391 OBP, .610 SLG, 1.001 OPS) has been a pleasant surprise given his dismal 2005 offensive season (.236 BA, 8 HR, .658 OPS), but most keen observers -- and certainly the Red Sox -- knew the right-handed slugger was a better hitter than that. He is on pace for a career year but is doing it while thoroughly enjoying the confines of Fenway park, where he is hitting .351 with 13 of his 20 doubles, which should not come as a shock. Otherwise, Kevin Youkilis (.318 BA, .425 OBP, .483 SLG, .908 OPS) is living up to the potential many predicted he would realize with regular playing time. The rest of the offense is totally at or below expectations.
From the mound, Schilling (6-2, 4.17 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 52 K, 58-1/3 IP) has rebounded for a season in which he never had full strength following his 2004 ankle injury. Many had written him off -- folly that Schilling and those in the know smugly chuckle at. Beckett (6-1, 4.19 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 40 K, 58 IP) has been almost identically solid, if not spectacular, in the number 2 slot. Both aces have been brilliant at times, and the low number of baserunners they have allowed suggests improved ERAs to come. Wakefield (4.17 ERA, 1.32 WHIP) has been his typically solid self, while Clement (5.36 ERA, 1.57 WHIP) has continued to struggle. Wells (15-7, 4.45 ERA in 2005; 8-1, 3.07 at Fenway), if his knees hold up, should be giving the Sox a shot in the arm soon.
The bullpen has been lights out, as those with a lower proclivity for panic, might have predicted. Though Foulke lost the closer's role early, Jonathan Papelbon (0.42 ERA, 0.63 WHIP, 19 K, 22-1/3 IP), as many predicted he could, has been spectacular, converting 15 of 15 save opportunity against a single loss, as Sox stopper. Meanwhile, Foulke (3.47 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 19 K, 23-1/3 IP) has recovered nicely from a rough start to serve as a strong set-up complement to Mike Timlin (0.96 ERA, 1.13 WHIP), whose continued his strong run from last season.
Perhaps as important as anything, the Red Sox are among the tops in the Majors with a .989 fielding percentage this season and only 13 errors. And this is no coincidence. Moves in the off-season to acquire Lowell, Gonzalez, Loretta, and Crisp all constituted important defensive upgrades. The entire infield (with Youkilis) is redesigned and is preventing plenty of runs against. Crisp should add to that effort when he returns to center.
A couple hundred miles down the Eastern seaboard in New York, then Yankees are suffering with numerous pitching question marks and an abysmal defense, neither of which was unexpected, but both of which have been exacerbated by injuries and old age.
Carl Pavano has not been healthy since last season and will have surgery Thursday to remove a bone chip from his elbow that will sideline him around three months. Shawn Chacon (4-1, 5.21 ERA, 1.68 WHIP) has also hit the DL until June 1st. That leaves the Yankees with lone star Mussina (6-1, 2.57 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 59 K, 66-2/3 IP) and Johnson (5-4, 5.62, 1.39 ERA, 41 K, 57-2/3 IP), who has struggled mightily and may be losing the race to Father Time, at the top of a rotation that follows with Chien-Ming Wang (4-1, 3.79 ERA, 1.26 WHIP), washed up Jaret Wright (1-3, 4.94 ERA, 1.54 WHIP), and fill-in Aaron Small (8.59 ERA, 2.05 WHIP), who defied all statistical probability to have a strong enough run at the end of last season to find his way onto the Yankees shallow pitching depth chart.
Hideki Matsui's broken wrist will not only keep him out until late August at least but also force slow and rapidly aging Bernie Williams into regular OF duty -- not something the Yankees would prefer from an offensive or defensive standpoint (whether or not helped Melky Cabrera, who has 4 errors in left field in 15 chances). The Yankees are apparently hoping that reclamation project Terrence Long, who was cut from Cincinnati's AAA affiliate will magically help the cause. (Um, yeah, good luck with that.)
Meanwhile, in the infield, Alex Rodriguez has an astounding 8 errors -- one ahead of the 7 combined by Jason Giambi and Andy Phillips at first. Jeter, by far the most overrated defender in baseball, meanwhile has 4 errors, as does Robinson Cano. For those counting at home, that's pace for almost 100 errors by the infield (minus catcher and pitcher) alone.
There's no question that even without Matsui, and with Sheffield returning soon, the Yankees will continue to put runs on the board. But equally certain is the fact that, barring BIG changes, this is NOT a team bound to win games in the post-season.
The Red Sox will have the opportunity to take advantage of these Yankee weaknesses starting tonight, as the rivals kick off a three-game set at Fenway Park at 7:05 pm when Curt Schilling goes for career win number 199 against Chien-Ming Wang.
]]>Perhaps you scoffed at the notion. Well, it's still early, but with 22 HR in 44 games, Pujols has not slowed down and is still on pace to hit 81 home runs...
]]>http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=hruby/060512
(The estimate is 616.)
By the way, it's been called to my attention by Lisa and her most excellent blog at http://forloveoftheastros.mlblogs.com/ that more than a few people have been discussing Bonds's recent drilling by Astros reliever Russ Springer shortly before Bond's 714th.
With regard to Springer hitting Barry Bonds and the Houston fans giving Springer a standing ovation in response, I fully support both actions (assuming Springer was not aiming at, and has enough control not to hit, Bond's head). Some might argue that if there were true and absolute justice in the world (not to put the burden on Springer), that the incident would have ended Bonds's baseball career -- short of Ruth and short of him disgracing America's pastime for another instant.
And the argument would not be based on Barry Bonds's use of steroids, as many other players have done, or Bonds's ascension in the record books, but because of the kind of person Barry Bonds is -- a despicable one -- as depicted in this article by Dan Wetzel of Yahoo! Sports:
]]>After having some trouble early and giving up a 2-run home run on a 3-2 pitch to Jason Giambi in the first, Beckett settled down to retire the next 12 batters in order. Beckett finished the game with 7 IP, 3 ER, and 7 K, bringing his record this season to 4-1. Johnson, meanwhile, struggled for the fourth time in five starts, lasting just 3-2/3 innings and giving up 7 runs (2 earned) on 5 hits, 5 walks, and 2 wild pitches. New York's $16 million per year hurler has an ERA of 5.01 on the season and was booed roundly by the New York fans as he left the mound last night.
The Sox offense featured a balanced attack. Ramirez connected off Aaron Small for his sixth homer of the year in the 6th, following Alex Gonzalez's 3-run shot off Small in the 5th. Gonzalez's home run was his first since August 5, 2005 with Florida. Mark Loretta contributed 3 hits and 2 RBI, while Mike Lowell hit his Major League-leading 18th and 19th doubles and scored 2 runs. Lowell's last eight hits have all been doubles. He leads the Sox with a .339 average and is second to Ortiz (.576) with a .557 slugging percentage.
Boston has now scored 176 runs while allowing 153 this season, as the offense is finally starting to come alive. Look for this trend to continue. This team has the punch to hit with anybody.
The Red Sox stand at 20-12 and face the Yankees again tonight in the Stadium as ace Curt Schilling (5-1, 3.02) goes for his 198th career win against Mike Mussina (5-1, 2.35).
]]>Lowell is leading the Majors in doubles with 17 and is hitting .339 with a .400 OBP and .542 SLG (.942 OPS). Those are big time numbers offensively, and Lowell is providing a slick glove at third base as well (coming off a Gold Glove in the N.L. last season). Strangely, the Fenway faithful seem slow to warm up to Lowell, though after a hot weekend, this seems to be changing. It could be because he came in as a guy who hit only .236 last season and who the Red Sox were going to have to pay $18 million over two years as a premium for nabbing phenom Beckett. Even as it's looking like fair market value (for now), the fans have been slow to catch on.
Lowell has only 2 home runs through Sunday and hasn't won any games with a walk-off of any kind (a la Mark Loretta, who has enjoyed significant good will despite a .240 average). And, of course, Lowell doesn't have the long-standing popularity of other proven Sox regulars such as Manny, Ortiz, Varitek, or Nixon. But this season, Lowell has outperformed all but Ortiz and should be hitting in the number 5 spot in the order before long if he keeps up.
The fans should stand up and take notice. His teammates have already, and the rest of the league is sure to do so.
]]>The Boston Globe reports that Greg Rybarczyk, who created the Hit Tracker device that, among other things, tabulates home run distances, reported that the "standard distance" for the 395-foot (actual distance) shot projects to 460 feet. Standard distance corrects for atmospheric conditions and assumes no wind (head or tail) and 70-degree temperature. Ortiz's shot left the bat at a blazing 120.7 miles per hour on a 37.7 degree angle but into a 16 mph headwind from center, which knocked it back 54 feet. The low temperature cost the ball another 12. Only ten balls have had a greater standard distance this season (and I don't know, but would bet, most or all of them were not hit off a soft tosser like Myers). Here's something to chew on: Rybarczyk reported that had there been a 16 mph tailwind, the ball would have travelled 509 feet and landed about 25 rows up Section 37.
To put this in perspective, the longest ball ever hit within the confines of Fenway Park traveled 502 feet off the bat of Ted Williams in 1946 (an MVP year for the Splinter). Manny Ramirez had a blast off one of the left field light towers in 2001 that supposedly traveled 501 feet, but this "estimated distance" seems to be a thinly veiled public relations figure in deference to Williams. Last year, Ramirez hit one that cleared the light tower, but the Red Sox offered no distance projection on that ball.
There is, of course, some inherent imprecision to the measurement of these home runs, as they tell how far the ball actually traveled before making touching down in the stands, bullpen, etc. rather than where the ball would land based on its trajectory when it came down to ground zero. For example, Manny hit a ball last year over everything that ended up on the Commuter Rail train tracks next to the Mass Pike (off a hop off the roof of the building across Lansdowne Street), but no one knows for sure how far it traveled. The estimate is 468 feet, but that was still only the distance to estimated landing spot on the building top. It's actually somewhat unfortunate for Manny that he's right-handed. Hitting from the left side, some these balls would likely have surpassed the Splinter's mark without any question. It may, then, be up to Ortiz to take a shot at it.
Suffice to say that Big Papi's ball of Myers last night was absolutely smoked. Just imagine what Ortiz might do off someone throwing in the mid-90s on a warm day with no headwind...
]]>Sterno,
You need to distinguish between fans booing Damon for being a Yankee and their condemnation of him as a person. When he tipped his cap last night in his first at bat, almost everyone in Fenway Park cheered loudly. I did so myself. Damon understands that the booing is just part of the fun of the rivalry, and, based on his comments, he understands that's it and nothing more. He's not taking it any more personally than do most fans believe that he is a terrible person for going to the Yankees.
Damon had a choice. He could have taken $10 million per year (more money than a normal person would know what to do with, particularly after what he's already made) or he could go for the highest paying offer. He did the latter. The Red Sox were smart to draw the line because Damon is not worth $13 million per year. Ortiz chose to extend his contract with the Sox for significantly less money than he is worth -- ironically, for the same amount over the same span as Damon. For that, and so many reasons, the fans adore him.
From Damon's perspective, like Pedro's, he may have taken the Sox refusal to bid up as a sign of disrespect. That's his prerogative. Is he greedy? Each person will make his or her own judgment (or just refrain from doing so).
But the bottom line is that the fans don't have to like Damon's choice. They can boo him for making it. They can boo him for being a Yankee. It's not equivalent to hatred or renunciation of all the incredible things he did here (as evidenced by the ovation he got when he tipped his cap). It's just recognition of the fact that the money from the Yankees (be it because of perceived respect or dollar value) was more important to him than staying here with us.
It's all in good fun from most fans. Fortunately, Johnny himself recognizes that.
]]>The contest marked the return of former Sox All-Star and 2004 playoff hero, Johnny Damon, who signed as a free agent with the Yankees in the off season for $52 million over four years, as the Sox failed to make a bid close to competing with their Division rivals. Of course, the turn of events led to a panoply of less than tasteful t-shirts, many of which were proudly exhibited last night. One choice selection was a shirt that read: "Johnny Damon. Looks like Jesus. Acts like Judas. Throws like Mary." You have to love this town.
Also returning -- in dramatic fashion -- was Doug Mirabelli, reacquired by trade from San Diego. Mirabelli's plane landed at 6:48 pm last night (17 minutes before game time), where it was met by a State Police escort that whisked Mirabelli directly to the parked in 12 minutes. It's believed the Sox backstop put on his uniform in the car on the way to the park. Varitek was actually penciled in to start the game as it was unclear that Mirabelli would make it. From the stands, it looked like Varitek, in fact, would start the game, as he warmed up Wake and came in from the pen with him at about 7:00. At around 7:05, however, Mirabelli came jogging out of the clubhouse onto the field to an incredible ovation by the (observant and informed) Fenway Faithful. He may have been wearing Varitek's catcher's equipment. In any case, he entered the game with no warmup, just in time to take Wakefield warmup tosses from the mound.
Not to be outdone by way of dramatic entrance, Johnny Damon, who had already been booed mercilessly when he was announced in the starting lineups, led off for the Yankees. With the boo-birds already in full chirp as Damon reached the plate, however, he showed a true sign of class by tipping his cap to all sides of the stadium, turning the boos to cheers of regonition for his respect and all that he did, in fact, do for this organization and the fans. After that fleeting moment, both Damon and the fans knew there would be no return from his new status: Enemy of the Nation.
As it turned out, Damon went quietly this night with an 0-4 performance. The closest the Yanks' centerfielder came to reaching base was on a dribbler between the mound and first that Wakefield fielded before diving to tag Damon on his way down the baseline. Round one to the Red Sox, but it's unlikely that's the best we'll see from Damon in the remaining 18 games.
The story of the night really, though, may have been a split between the weather and a less publicized return to Fenway. Though the whole story could not be accurately told from watching TV or listening to the radio, from a first-hand vantage point, the wind was unbelievable. It was blowing in strong from center ALL night, and it seemed to grow in strength as the game progressed. By the late innings, the flag pole itself was shaking violently. It was easily the strongest wind I have ever witnessed at Fenway Park.
At least five different balls were absolutely tattooed, none of which amounted in anything more than a fly out because anything hit in the air was completely swept up and knocked down by the wind. More than one play was made much less than routine as a result, including Derek Jeter's miscue of a Trot Nixon pop-up behind shortstop that had the Yankees' captain turning around in circles before the ball dropped behind him in shallow left-center.
And so the game went, without much offense. After five innings with three hits for the Yankees and six for the Red Sox, the game was knotted at 3, whiere it remained until the eighth inning. It seemed the only way to get a hit was to single on a low line over the heads of the infielders without putting the ball in to high in the air for it to get caught up and pushed down. Watching the game live, the consensus was that it would simply not be possible to hit a ball out of the park.
Enter David Ortiz. After Mark Loretta singled in a run to put Boston on top 4-3, former Sox and current Yankees lefty specialist, Mike Myers came in to face Boston's DH extraordinarre with two runners on and two out. Having worked from behind to get to a full count on Ortiz, Myers put one pitch where he shouldn't have. Ortiz let fly and absolutely crushed the Myers offering out to right-center. By this point in the game, the wind was so strong that the thought of the flag pole becoming dislodged from its perch on the centerfield wall had actually crossed my mind, and it just didn't seem possible that any ball could make it out of any part of the park. But the ball that Ortiz punished cut through the wind and carried...and carried...and carried until Johnny Damon and Bubba Crosby, who had converged on the corner of the outfield bullpen, watched helplessly as it sailed over the wall and into the Red Sox bullpen. Jonathan Papelbon, who was warming in anticipation of what all previously believed would be a save situation caught the ball and threw it into the bleachers as the fans went completely bezerk. 7-3, Red Sox - Ortiz a hero again.
By the time Papelbon came on in the top of the ninth to close it out in what had become a non-save situation, the masses in the park, still packed despite 45 degree temperatures and a nasty wind-chill, were confident the game was in hand. Pap promptly struck out A-Rod swinging on three pitches, got a weak pop-up to third from Matsui, and struck out Posada swinging.
What a game.
The Sox are in first place at 15-11, a game ahead of New York (13-11), entering tonight's contest in which Josh Beckett (3-1, 4.50) will face off against Shawn Chacon (3-1, 4.56), weather permitting. Stay tuned for more drama.
]]>Mirabelli returns not a moment too soon, as Wakefield, who had thrown 10 passed balls past Mirabelli's replacement, Josh Bard, takes the mound tonight against Boston's hated rivals. The Sox new, old backup backstop was re-obtained from San Diego for Bard, minor league pitcher Cla Meredith, and cash.
Damon, has catalyzed they Yankees offense as the new leadoff man in New York, hitting .312 with a .905 OPS and 22 runs scored. He will return to center stage at Fenway hoping to channel some of his bitterness that the Sox let him go in the form of a victory for his new team.
The Sox hope to get their sluggish offense started tonight against the Bronx Bombers, who have scored a Division-leading 144 runs (to the Sox 117). Many of Boston's starting positional players have struggled at the plate with Mark Loretta hitting .218 (.579 OPS), Gonzalez hitting .186 (.518 OPS), and Varitek hitting .250 (.720 OPS). Manny is now hitting .276 (.865 OPS -- lowly for him) but is at least showing signs of improvement with 4 homers in his last 9 games. The Sox have hit just .256 as a team with a .353 OBP and .416 SLG, compared to New York at .299 with a .395 OBP and .495 SLG.
Boston is coming off dropping two of three to Tampa, including a 5-4 loss on a strong pitching performance by Rays ace lefty, Scott Kazmir (10 Ks, 1 ER in 7 IP), against Curt Schilling (9 Ks, 3 ER in 6 IP) yesterday. The Sox nearly came back with back-to-back solo shots in the ninth to Mike Lowell (who's been excellent at .318//.371/.511 by the way) and Wily Mo Pena. The Yankees, meanwhile, took the last two of a three-game set against Toronto. On Saturday, Damon hit two home runs.
Wakefield (1-4, 3.90 ERA) will take the mound against Chien-Ming Wang (1-1, 4.80 ERA). The atmosphere at Fenway is sure to be electric.
]]>Bonds hit a staggering 73 home runs in the 2001 season aided by steroids. Pujols, one of the game's model citizens and perhaps the new face of Major League Baseball, is currently on pace to hit 95.
Of course, the Reds are also on pace to win 115 games.
But what makes Pujols's effort to keep up the pace different is that he actually has the talent to pull it off. Consider that Pujols has tremendous natural size and strength (at 6'3", 225 lbs. compared to Bonds's steroid-assisted 6'2", 235 lbs.) and is a career .333 hitter. He's hit .359, .331, and .330 the past three seasons. And Pujols is 26 years old. Talk about a positive development projection.
Other sluggers such as Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz, Jim Thome, Alex Rodriguez, and Adam Dunn also have titanic power, but none can match the ability that Pujols has to make solid contact so consistently. And to hit 74 home runs, contact rate is probably the more important -- or at least rate-limiting -- part of equation.
Bonds hit .328 in 2001 when he smacked 73 home runs, and Pujols exceeds Bonds's ability to make contact (at least through that point in Bonds's career). Entering what are traditionally believed to be a player's best performance years, it is not unreasonable to expect both power growth and contact improvement from Pujols. We already know he is capable of hitting .360. With the contact rate that underlies that kind of batting average and the kind of power Pujols has displayed over the first month of the season (in which he's hit .350 with a .925 slugging percentage), 74 home runs, if ever-improbable, is not at all out of the question.
In a season in which baseball is struggling to come to grips with what Barry Bonds is about to accomplish in surpassing the legendary Babe Ruth on the all-time home run list, imagine the effect of Pujols eclipsing the tainted mark of Bonds. It sure would help heal that huge black eye that Bonds is to the game -- and help restore some credibility to the hallowed record books. It will be quite some time before Pujols even has a chance to come through and clean up Bonds's career home run mark (and the record should Bonds pass Aaron). Averaging 37 HR per year for 15 years, including this one, would put Pujols at 756 after playing through age 40 (to date, he's averaged 40.2 in his first five seasons). That's an impressive rate to uphold over a long haul in which injuries, labor disputes, performance decline, or God knows what else could happen to derail him.
For now, we can hope Pujols wipes out the asterisk-tagged seasonal record and helps lift the pall Bonds has cast over the 2006 season.
Only 60 more home runs to go...
]]>Of course, Nipper is hardly an unbiased source. He is lobbying his friend hard to come back to where it all started for the Rocket, and why wouldn't he? The Sox sure could use Clemens, and Nipper would love to win a ring with the team. The old buddies both came close as teammates in '86, but we all know how that ended.
Surely it would be poetic for Roger to return to the team with which he got his baseball start, the organization with which he won 192 games (tied with Cy Young himself for the most in Red Sox history), three Cy Young Awards, and an MVP, the city in which he was beloved for 13 seasons. Should he return, he would be beyond beloved -- he would be a mythical figure, the prodigal son returning. If Clemens led Boston to a World Championship...Well, words can scarcely describe that status...but it would leave more than a few Bostonians starting a new religion.
Truth be told, Clemens should return to Boston. It just feels right. It's the right story. It's the right ending. It's all the drama and all the pressure and all the adrenaline: the stuff of Rocket's dreams and then some. It seems like -- dare I say it? -- destiny.
But we all know that destiny, however palpable it seems, is beyond our control. For now, we can only hope. But what a destiny it would be.
]]>On a night when Curt Schilling had some of his nastiest stuff of the season, the Indians tagged him for 5 runs in 6 innings anyway. Schilling was quoted by ESPN.com: "I had great stuff, a great split. This is one of those nights where the linescore doesn't match what was going on." These things happen. Francona, in fact, left his ace in the game for 133 pitches because his stuff was that good. Unfortunately Schilling lost a 5-4 lead in the 7th, failing to become only the third Sox pitcher to get 5 April wins (Pedro Martinez in 2000 and Babe Ruth in 1917 are the others).
The win and the fashion it came in were great signs for the Sox. As I pointed out Monday, this team not begun to scratch the surface of its offensive potential, even as Schilling and Beckett had started off superhuman. Last night, Schilling had a down performance, but the offense carried the day. Boston fans should expect many more such instances in which the offense is able to carry the team past a poor pitching performances when everyone (ore even just most everyone) hits as they are capable. This is an underrated offense. Though analysts recognize the danger of the Ortiz-Manny combination, most have felt the team is a step down from previous iterations of the past three years. While the team will likely not replicate 2003 offensively (.491 team SLG, 961 runs scored), it's should be ahead of last year's group and could be close to 2004.
With a 3 for 4 game, Manny has raised his average to .300. His heroics in the game came only after a gaffe on the bases that turned into an bizarre double play. Jake Westbrook caught Ramirez daydreaming off second base, resulting in a pickle. The Indians overthrew to second base on the rundown, fortuitously tagging Jason Varitek out at second as he tried to advance from first with Manny caught up, before throwing to third to get Manny. As Francona was eloquently quoted, "Manny tooketh away, but he gaveth a lot more later." And Manny being Manny -- i.e., hitting game-winning dingers -- is great news.
Another good sign for the Sox -- and this has happened quietly -- has been Keith Foulke's performance. Though he gave up a two-out RBI double last night in the 8th with a three-run lead, Foulke has a 3.95 ERA and 0.88 WHIP on the season. He had an important 1-2/3 inning perfect stretch (3 Ks), holding a one-run lead, in Boston's victory over Toronto on Sunday and has shown flashes of the dominant closer he was for the Sox in 2004. Even if Foulke remains in the relief role he's had (middle innings to setting up), he figures to be a key part of the team. Should he get back to his old level, it would allow Papelbon to work into the rotation if Wells does not come back (which at this point is likely). Another option to think about for later in the season is Craig Hansen, who has been mowing down hitters in AA to the tune of a .111 BA and 0 ER.
Though the Sox are looking for another starter to fill Wells's void in the rotation, we'll leave speculation about Clemens filling the hole for someone else to blog about for now. But rest assured: There will be a bidding war come June and July for a Rocket Relaunch in Boston, New York (2 games back in second, by the way), or Houston with Texas possibly vying for an initial mission.
]]>Presently, the Sox are missing their star leadoff hitter, Coco Crisp, who looks poised for a terrific season. Kevin Youkilis has filled in capably in the leadoff spot with a .403 OBP on the season (and .455 SLG), but aside from Youkilis, Ortiz (.391 OBP, .680 SLG), and arguably Mike Lowell (.338 OBP, .462 SLG), the entire offense is underachieving. Alex Gonzalez (.281 OBP, .263 SLG), Mark Loretta (.291 OBP, .325 SLG), Jason Varitek (.323 OBP, .340 SLG), and Manny Ramirez (.407 OBP, .379 SLG) are all SUBSTANTIALLY under projection. This is not a concern after 19 games and a 12-7 record as much as it is a portent of bigger things to come from this offense. Expectations should be more along the lines of a .680 OPS compared to .544 for Gonzalez, .800 compared to .616 for Loretta, .865 compared to .663 for Varitek, and 1.010 compared to .786 for Manny. Combined with other players performing at expected levels, that means a lot more runs for Boston.
The pitching, on balance, has been more in line with expecations (on pace to allow 710 runs, compared to a projection of 735 I made pre-season). Though Schilling and Beckett will likely come back to Earth to some degree, the Sox should have better performances from Clement (6.17 ERA) and should also have a 5th starter at some point better than Lenny DiNardo (7.43). (GASP! Could it be Clemens?!?!)
Bottom line: The Red Sox are on pace to win 102 games. And they have yet to play their best baseball.
]]>There is much wealth to share in the Red Sox glory. Perhaps foremost in that many pundits considered them to be question marks coming into the season are Curt Schilling and Josh Beckett, who each stand at 3-0 on the season and have been absolutely spectaular in their starts, two-thirds of which have been one-run games. Schilling boasts a 1.64 ERA to Beckett's 1.29, and the dynamic duo have already fomented speculation of double 20-win seasons. Though it is just April, Schilling has silenced critics who prognosticated that he was washed up following his 2004 injury by delivering with 96 mph fastballs, nasty splitters, and superb location. Meanwhile, Beckett has also lit up the radar gun, stymied hitters with his filthy stuff, and thrived in the media- and fan-crazed environment that Boston offers, showing nary a sign of blisters (or shoulder problems that were rumored around the time of his acquisition from the Marlins).
Another huge question mark for Boston coming into the season was the closer role. Though Foulke was the putative ninth-inning guy coming into the season, his struggles early on led Terry Francona to tap rookie Jonathan Papelbon for the role. Pap has responded by nailing down 7 saves in seven opportunities, while allowing 0 earned runs and only 3 hits and 2 walks in 8 innings to go with 8 Ks, quickly making the young gun a Fenway favorite.
The rest of the Sox pitchers will need to turn in solid perfomances to keep the ball rolling on days that Schilling and Beckett don't start, but Wakefield has had oustanding outings in two of three of his starts, and Clement has shown signs of dominant form in two of three starts despite allowing some runs later in those games. Timlin and Tavarez (in more limited duty following his 10-game suspension for smacking Joey Gathright) have been solid out of the bullpen thus far, though Timlin has continued last years trend of trouble with inherited runners. With Wells down, the Sox are using long-man Lenny DiNardo in the rotation, and got 5 solid innings of 2-run ball from him on Monday.
Of course, the buzz about town is that the Sox will going into overdrive in their quest to convince Roger Clemens to come back to town with Wells struggling with his health and the Sox short a starter. Clemens has indicated that he will only come back to play for a team that has a shot of winning it all and if there is a need to fill. At this early point, the Red Sox meet both criteria. Among his other suitors, the Astros also stand atop their division at 10-4. The Yankees (6-7) and Rangers (6-8) have struggled, but it is very early.
Offensively, the Sox have seen the usual heroics from David Ortiz whose line is an absurd 6 HR, 12 RBI, .333 BA, .429 OBP, .759 SLG, 1.188 OPS after 14 games. Ortiz had 2 home runs in the Patriots' Day win and 2 doubles the other way off the wall last night, the first of which came as Tampa Bay employed a shift with all three outfileders on the right side along with the first baseman, second baseman, and shortshop; only the third baseman patrolled the outfield in left. Manny Ramirez has started more slowly, but has had 2-hit games the last two days including a double and 3 RBI last night. Anyone concerned about whether Manny will hit should take a valium.
Probably the two other biggest contributors to the offense have been Kevin Youkilis and Mark Loretta, both of whom are new to the Red Sox starting infield and both of whom critics questioned in the pre-season. Youkilis is starting at first and hitting .318 with a .426 OBP. With Coco Crisp sidelined with a broken left index finger (15 day DL), "The Greek God of Walks" is leading off, and last night Youk hit the 2-run double in the bottom of the eighth to break a 4-4 tie and put Boston ahead for good. Meanwhile, Loretta (8 RBI) has had a number of timely hits, including his dramatic walk-off home run off Seattle closer, Eddie Guardado, to win the game on Marathon Monday. Loretta, who had never before hit a walk-off home run from little league through the Majors, was boyishly ecstatic, as were his teammates -- nevermind the day-game crowd that was going absolutely bonkers.
The early tallies for this team -- and particularly the answers the team has provided on the field to questions coming into the season -- are very promising. The Sox look to continue their hot play tonight against the injury-plagued Devil Rays (Julio Lugo - abdominal strain, Aubrey Huff - knee, Rocco Baldelli - hamstring) with Schilling looking to extend his record to 4-0.
]]>In the aftermath of Jimmy Rollins recent hitting-streak attrition, many people have wondered aloud and in print whether anyone will ever break Joe DiMaggio's 56-game hitting streak. The answer may well be "No." To wrap one's mind around this, it is useful to look at the feat as a matter of probability. Let's take a hypothetical hitter who would be the league leader in batting average most any year, and assume his seasonal batting average to be .350 (DiMaggio hit .357 in '41). Since he is such a prodigious hitter, we will also assume that he bats in the upper third of the order and gets 600 at bats in the season and plays in 155 games for an average of 3.87 at bats per game.
In any given at bat, this hitter has a 35% chance of hitting safely, which means he has a 65% chance of making an out (or reaching on an error). Thus the odds of this hitter NOT getting a hit in any given game can be calculated by taking 0.65 to the power of 3.87. This comes out to 18.9%, so the odds of a .350 hitting GETTING a hit in 3.87 at bats are very good -- 81.1%. Now, what are the odds of this hitter getting at least one hit 56 games in a row? Well, to calculate the probability of consecutive occurrences taking place, we take the probability of a single occurrence and raise it to the power of the number of consecutive occurrences we are curious about. For example, if we wanted to know the odds of a coin coming up heads three times in a row, we would take the single occurrence odds -- 1 in 2 or 50% or .50 expressed as a decimal -- and raise it to the third power (in other words, multiple it by itself three times):
0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 = 0.125 or 12.5% or 1 in 8
For our purposes of the hypothetical hitter, we take the single occurrence odds of 81.1% (about 8 in 10) and raise it to the 56th power (multiply it by itself 56 times):
0.81121186759633^56 = 0.000008157 or 0.0008157% or about 1 in 125,000
Needless to say, these odds are quite long. For a mere .300 hitter, the odds are far, far longer -- 0.000009013% or about 1 in 11,000,000. There are, of course, quite a number of players "attempting" the feat every year, but hardly any of them hit anywhere near .350, and before approaching a level where a larger clump of hitters is in the mix, the odds drop precipitously. So every year, you have no more than a relative handful of players chasing a feat that they have about 1 in 11,000,000 odds of achieving with one or two thrown in whose odds are closer to 1 in 125,000.
With this statistical backdrop, it's easy to understand how this has only been accomplished once. And if it's not obvious at this point, the event was as much attributable to DiMaggio's good luck than it was anything else. Without a doubt, his .357 hitting ability (also partly luck -- DiMaggio was a career .325 hitter) is what put him in that rarified echelon that allowed his odds to come down to about 0.001549% or about 1 in 65,000, making him approximately 170 times more likely than a .300 hitter to pull it off. Still, Joltin' Joe could only expect to pull off this feat once for every 65,000 seasons he played (assuming he hit a career-high .357 every year). It may not be better to be lucky than to be good, but it certainly helps to be both.
Not unrelatedly to his streak, DiMaggio won the MVP award in 1941, arguably robbing Ted Williams, who hit .406 on the season, of what should have been Williams's first such honor. How could this happen, you ask? Well, there are a number of reasons, one of which was DiMaggio's media darling reputation and the fact that he had been around the League (in heroic form) three years longer than Williams. It also helped that the Yankees won the pennant and that the Red Sox finished second.
Two questions immediately come to mind: 1) Who had the better season? and 2) Which feat -- hitting safely in 56 consecutive games or hitting .406 on the season -- is the more impressive feat? I won't engage in discussing whether Williams was more deserving of the MVP since the Yanks went to the playoffs and the Sox went home (nothing like last year's Ortiz-Rodriguez travesty).
I'll dispatch with the better season question first. As always, let's take a look at the numbers:
Williams
143 G, 456 AB, 135 R, 185 H, 37 HR, 120 RBI, 2 SB, 4 CS, 147 BB, 335 TB,
.406 BA, .553 OBP, .735 SLG, 1.288 OPS
DiMaggio
139 G, 541 AB, 122 R, 193 H, 30 HR, 125 RBI, 4 SB, 2 CS, 76 BB, 348 TB,
.357 BA, .440 OBP, .643 SLG, 1.083 OPS
At the outset, I should point out that these are both MVP-level seasons in any year (at least when Barry Bonds isn't juicing to the performance-enhanced tune of a 1.450 OPS). We see that the two all-time greats drove in and scored similar numbers of runs, though these are objectively poor, albeit popular, metrics of individual performance. Williams and DiMaggio both had a lot of opportunites to drive in runs hitting the middle of their respective orders with plenty of opportunity to be driven in themselves once on base. From a team standpoint, however, these are the only offensive stats that matter because they represent how many times the team scores. In that sense, then they may be valid measures for consideration in MVP voting since the MVP award is supposed to be awarded to the player who was most valuable in helping his team win ballgames.
But we asked who had the better season, not who should have been the MVP, so what about the numbers that do matter to that determination? Defense and baserunning aside, it really all comes down to OPS. As any astute student of the game (or maybe even just a reasonably intelligent person who was just given the rules of the game but was previously locked away in a fallout bunker from birth with zero exposure to baseball or its writing and reporting) can tell you, the most important thing to do when you are at bat (certain necessary sacrifice situations notwithstanding) is not make an out. For that reason, on base percentage, or the percentage of time one does not make an out, is of paramount importance. Beyond that, it is better to homer than it is to triple, which is better than it is to double, which is better than it is to single or walk. After all, the closer you are to home, the easier it is for you to score a run, which is the ultimate goal. For that reason, slugging percentage, or the number of total bases one achieves per at bat, is also of great importance. Adding the two together to get OPS (On-base Plus Slugging), as has become chic in recent years, provides a nifty snapshot of offensive total value. Even OPS is not perfect, however, as it too incorporates data that is attributable significantly to luck (i.e., hits), but it is the best non-adjusted, readily available stat that's out there.
With a staggering 1.288 OPS, Williams recorded the seventh highest single-season OPS in history -- and, more significantly, the fourth highest ever when we subtract out Barry Bonds's drug-induced performances of 2001, 2002, and 2004. The only other player to record a higher OPS than Williams in 1941 was Babe Ruth. (Of note, Williams's career OPS was 1.1155; Ruth's was 1.1638.) DiMaggio, at 1.083, is not even in the top 100 all-time, single-season performances. (For his career, DiMaggio ranks 14th at .9771.) Incredibly, Williams could have not drawn a single walk the entire season (in fact, he drew 147) and still finished with a higher OPS than DiMaggio on the back of that .406 batting average. Williams's .553 OBP is the third highest in history behind only Bonds tainted performances of 2002 and 2004, and his .735 slugging ranks 17th (with four Bonds-owned, tainted performances as well as one from McGwire in 1998).
In short, there is little question that Williams had the better season. Based on his titanic OPS, it was arguably among top five most historic of all-time to boot -- and this is without giving additional weight to being the last man to hit .400!
Now, for the second question. What's more impressive -- hitting .406 or a 56-game hitting streak? Well, it depends on how you define "impressive." If you are impressed by people winning millions of dollars in the lottery, then you may be more jazzed about the streak. If on the other hand, you are more impressed by someone who earns millions of dollars through hard work and skill, then surely you are more impressed by the .406 mark. The truth is, a .406 hitter with 600 at bats actually has a 0.0333% or about 1 in 3,000 chance of hitting in 56 consecutive games, though Williams actually saw far fewer at bats per game because of his walks, which actually bring his chances into line with a .350 hitter getting 600 AB.
In any case, DiMaggio just got plain lucky in 1941. Hitting at a .406 rate over the course of an entire season is far more impressive than hitting .357 over the same span. Of course, it's also reasonable to assume that both hitters were relatively lucky that year in that they achieved career-high BAs substantially above their career averages. Making good contact is the fundamental objective of hitting, but good contact hardly guarantees a hit. Most of that is attributable to the good fortune of hitting the ball to an area where it cannot be caught on the fly or where it can be fielded for a putout. Thus, in any given season, a hitter or a pitcher may be more or less lucky with respect to where the ball falls, resulting in substantial variance in BA and ERA (hence their less favored status predictive performance metrics).
An old baseball proverb advises, "Hit 'em where they ain't." As anyone who's ever played the game knows, getting this done at all, much less once or more per game 56 times in a row, is up to the fickle gods of baseball.
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