Manny Ramirez hit the game-winning, three-run homer last night in the eighth inning, breaking a 5-5 tie after the Indian’s intentionally walked David Ortiz.  With two outs and Ortiz having hit a home run the inning before to tie the game at 5, Cleveland Manager Eric Wedge, decided to go with the righty-on-righty matchup between Guillermo Mota and Ramirez.  The move did not pay off, as Ramirez drove the ball the other way to right center to put Boston up 8-5.  Papelbon pitched the 9th for his 9th save in as many chances.

On a night when Curt Schilling had some of his nastiest stuff of the season, the Indians tagged him for 5 runs in 6 innings anyway.  Schilling was quoted by ESPN.com: "I had great stuff, a great split. This is one of those nights where the linescore doesn’t match what was going on."  These things happen.  Francona, in fact, left his ace in the game for 133 pitches because his stuff was that good.  Unfortunately Schilling lost a 5-4 lead in the 7th, failing to become only the third Sox pitcher to get 5 April wins (Pedro Martinez in 2000 and Babe Ruth in 1917 are the others).

The win and the fashion it came in were great signs for the Sox.  As I pointed out Monday, this team not begun to scratch the surface of its offensive potential, even as Schilling and Beckett had started off superhuman.  Last night, Schilling had a down performance, but the offense carried the day.  Boston fans should expect many more such instances in which the offense is able to carry the team past a poor pitching performances when everyone (ore even just most everyone) hits as they are capable.  This is an underrated offense.  Though analysts recognize the danger of the Ortiz-Manny combination, most have felt the team is a step down from previous iterations of the past three years.  While the team will likely not replicate 2003 offensively (.491 team SLG, 961 runs scored), it’s should be ahead of last year’s group and could be close to 2004.

With a 3 for 4 game, Manny has raised his average to .300.  His heroics in the game came only after a gaffe on the bases that turned into an bizarre double play.  Jake Westbrook caught Ramirez daydreaming off second base, resulting in a pickle.  The Indians overthrew to second base on the rundown, fortuitously tagging Jason Varitek out at second as he tried to advance from first with Manny caught up, before throwing to third to get Manny.  As Francona was eloquently quoted, "Manny tooketh away, but he gaveth a lot more later."  And Manny being Manny — i.e., hitting game-winning dingers — is great news.

Another good sign for the Sox — and this has happened quietly — has been Keith Foulke’s performance.  Though he gave up a two-out RBI double last night in the 8th with a three-run lead, Foulke has a 3.95 ERA and 0.88 WHIP on the season.  He had an important 1-2/3 inning perfect stretch (3 Ks), holding a one-run lead, in Boston’s victory over Toronto on Sunday and has shown flashes of the dominant closer he was for the Sox in 2004.  Even if Foulke remains in the relief role he’s had (middle innings to setting up), he figures to be a key part of the team.  Should he get back to his old level, it would allow Papelbon to work into the rotation if Wells does not come back (which at this point is likely).  Another option to think about for later in the season is Craig Hansen, who has been mowing down hitters in AA to the tune of a .111 BA and 0 ER.

Though the Sox are looking for another starter to fill Wells’s void in the rotation, we’ll leave speculation about Clemens filling the hole for someone else to blog about for now.  But rest assured: There will be a bidding war come June and July for a Rocket Relaunch in Boston, New York (2 games back in second, by the way), or Houston with Texas possibly vying for an initial mission.

The Red Sox remain in first place with a 12-7 record heading to Cleveland after snapping a three-game losing streak yesterday against Toronto.  So, after 19 games, what’s the assessment of this team?  Well, for one thing, we learned that Curt Schilling and Josh Beckett will not go 70-0 for the Sox.  Shocker there.  We’ve also learned that Manny will not finish the season with zero home runs.  Equally uninformative data point.  As obvious as these points seem, however, these statements may be somewhat emblematic of what we can expect from the Red Sox moving forward: While we cannot count on aces 1A and 1B to win every single start, we can definitely expect that this team is going to bust out offensively.

Presently, the Sox are missing their star leadoff hitter, Coco Crisp, who looks poised for a terrific season.  Kevin Youkilis has filled in capably in the leadoff spot with a .403 OBP on the season (and .455 SLG), but aside from Youkilis, Ortiz (.391 OBP, .680 SLG), and arguably Mike Lowell (.338 OBP, .462 SLG), the entire offense is underachieving.  Alex Gonzalez (.281 OBP, .263 SLG), Mark Loretta (.291 OBP, .325 SLG), Jason Varitek (.323 OBP, .340 SLG), and Manny Ramirez (.407 OBP, .379 SLG) are all SUBSTANTIALLY under projection.  This is not a concern after 19 games and a 12-7 record as much as it is a portent of bigger things to come from this offense.  Expectations should be more along the lines of a .680 OPS compared to .544 for Gonzalez, .800 compared to .616 for Loretta, .865 compared to .663 for Varitek, and 1.010 compared to .786 for Manny.  Combined with other players performing at expected levels, that means a lot more runs for Boston. 

The pitching, on balance, has been more in line with expecations (on pace to allow 710 runs, compared to a projection of 735 I made pre-season).  Though Schilling and Beckett will likely come back to Earth to some degree, the Sox should have better performances from Clement (6.17 ERA) and should also have a 5th starter at some point better than Lenny DiNardo (7.43).  (GASP!  Could it be Clemens?!?!)

Bottom line: The Red Sox are on pace to win 102 games.  And they have yet to play their best baseball.

Behind dominating front-line pitching, and what has become trademark clutch hitting, the Boston Red Sox have continued to roll through their homestand.  After three wins in a row — including a dramatic walk-off spectacular on Patriots’ Day — the Sox stand at 10-4 (5-3 on the homestand) and lead the American League East by 2-1/2 games in the early going.

There is much wealth to share in the Red Sox glory.  Perhaps foremost in that many pundits considered them to be question marks coming into the season are Curt Schilling and Josh Beckett, who each stand at 3-0 on the season and have been absolutely spectaular in their starts, two-thirds of which have been one-run games.  Schilling boasts a 1.64 ERA to Beckett’s 1.29, and the dynamic duo have already fomented speculation of double 20-win seasons.  Though it is just April, Schilling has silenced critics who prognosticated that he was washed up following his 2004 injury by delivering with 96 mph fastballs, nasty splitters, and superb location.  Meanwhile, Beckett has also lit up the radar gun, stymied hitters with his filthy stuff, and thrived in the media- and fan-crazed environment that Boston offers, showing nary a sign of blisters (or shoulder problems that were rumored around the time of his acquisition from the Marlins).

Another huge question mark for Boston coming into the season was the closer role.  Though Foulke was the putative ninth-inning guy coming into the season, his struggles early on led Terry Francona to tap rookie Jonathan Papelbon for the role.  Pap has responded by nailing down 7 saves in seven opportunities, while allowing 0 earned runs and only 3 hits and 2 walks in 8 innings to go with 8 Ks, quickly making the young gun a Fenway favorite.

The rest of the Sox pitchers will need to turn in solid perfomances to keep the ball rolling on days that Schilling and Beckett don’t start, but Wakefield has had oustanding outings in two of three of his starts, and Clement has shown signs of dominant form in two of three starts despite allowing some runs later in those games.  Timlin and Tavarez (in more limited duty following his 10-game suspension for smacking Joey Gathright) have been solid out of the bullpen thus far, though Timlin has continued last years trend of trouble with inherited runners.  With Wells down, the Sox are using long-man Lenny DiNardo in the rotation, and got 5 solid innings of 2-run ball from him on Monday. 

Of course, the buzz about town is that the Sox will going into overdrive in their quest to convince Roger Clemens to come back to town with Wells struggling with his health and the Sox short a starter.  Clemens has indicated that he will only come back to play for a team that has a shot of winning it all and if there is a need to fill.  At this early point, the Red Sox meet both criteria.  Among his other suitors, the Astros also stand atop their division at 10-4.  The Yankees (6-7) and Rangers (6-8) have struggled, but it is very early.

Offensively, the Sox have seen the usual heroics from David Ortiz whose line is an absurd 6 HR, 12 RBI, .333 BA, .429 OBP, .759 SLG, 1.188 OPS after 14 games.  Ortiz had 2 home runs in the Patriots’ Day win and 2 doubles the other way off the wall last night, the first of which came as Tampa Bay employed a shift with all three outfileders on the right side along with the first baseman, second baseman, and shortshop; only the third baseman patrolled the outfield in left.  Manny Ramirez has started more slowly, but has had 2-hit games the last two days including a double and 3 RBI last night.  Anyone concerned about whether Manny will hit should take a valium.

Probably the two other biggest contributors to the offense have been Kevin Youkilis and Mark Loretta, both of whom are new to the Red Sox starting infield and both of whom critics questioned in the pre-season.  Youkilis is starting at first and hitting .318 with a .426 OBP.  With Coco Crisp sidelined with a broken left index finger (15 day DL), "The Greek God of Walks" is leading off, and last night Youk hit the 2-run double in the bottom of the eighth to break a 4-4 tie and put Boston ahead for good.  Meanwhile, Loretta (8 RBI) has had a number of timely hits, including his dramatic walk-off home run off Seattle closer, Eddie Guardado, to win the game on Marathon Monday.  Loretta, who had never before hit a walk-off home run from little league through the Majors, was boyishly ecstatic, as were his teammates — nevermind the day-game crowd that was going absolutely bonkers.

The early tallies for this team — and particularly the answers the team has provided on the field to questions coming into the season — are very promising.  The Sox look to continue their hot play tonight against the injury-plagued Devil Rays (Julio Lugo – abdominal strain, Aubrey Huff – knee, Rocco Baldelli – hamstring) with Schilling looking to extend his record to 4-0.

In 1941, Joltin’ Joe DiMaggio hit safely in 56 consecutive games.  It’s staggering.  Mind-boggling.  It may never be repeated.  It’s also attributable hugely to luck. 

In the aftermath of Jimmy Rollins recent hitting-streak attrition, many people have wondered aloud and in print whether anyone will ever break Joe DiMaggio’s 56-game hitting streak.  The answer may well be "No."  To wrap one’s mind around this, it is useful to look at the feat as a matter of probability.  Let’s take a hypothetical hitter who would be the league leader in batting average most any year, and assume his seasonal batting average to be .350 (DiMaggio hit .357 in ’41).  Since he is such a prodigious hitter, we will also assume that he bats in the upper third of the order and gets 600 at bats in the season and plays in 155 games for an average of 3.87 at bats per game.

In any given at bat, this hitter has a 35% chance of hitting safely, which means he has a 65% chance of making an out (or reaching on an error).  Thus the odds of this hitter NOT getting a hit in any given game can be calculated by taking 0.65 to the power of 3.87.  This comes out to 18.9%, so the odds of a .350 hitting GETTING a hit in 3.87 at bats are very good — 81.1%.  Now, what are the odds of this hitter getting at least one hit 56 games in a row?  Well, to calculate the probability of consecutive occurrences taking place, we take the probability of a single occurrence and raise it to the power of the number of consecutive occurrences we are curious about.  For example, if we wanted to know the odds of a coin coming up heads three times in a row, we would take the single occurrence odds — 1 in 2 or 50% or .50 expressed as a decimal — and raise it to the third power (in other words, multiple it by itself three times):

0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 = 0.125 or 12.5% or 1 in 8

For our purposes of the hypothetical hitter, we take the single occurrence odds of 81.1% (about 8 in 10) and raise it to the 56th power (multiply it by itself 56 times):

0.81121186759633^56 = 0.000008157 or 0.0008157%  or about 1 in 125,000

Needless to say, these odds are quite long.  For a mere .300 hitter, the odds are far, far longer — 0.000009013% or about 1 in 11,000,000.  There are, of course, quite a number of players "attempting" the feat every year, but hardly any of them hit anywhere near .350, and before approaching a level where a larger clump of hitters is in the mix, the odds drop precipitously.  So every year, you have no more than a relative handful of players chasing a feat that they have about 1 in 11,000,000 odds of achieving with one or two thrown in whose odds are closer to 1 in 125,000. 

With this statistical backdrop, it’s easy to understand how this has only been accomplished once.  And if it’s not obvious at this point, the event was as much attributable to DiMaggio’s good luck than it was anything else.  Without a doubt, his .357 hitting ability (also partly luck — DiMaggio was a career .325 hitter) is what put him in that rarified echelon that allowed his odds to come down to about 0.001549% or about 1 in 65,000, making him approximately 170 times more likely than a .300 hitter to pull it off.  Still, Joltin’ Joe could only expect to pull off this feat once for every 65,000 seasons he played (assuming he hit a career-high .357 every year).  It may not be better to be lucky than to be good, but it certainly helps to be both.

Not unrelatedly to his streak, DiMaggio won the MVP award in 1941, arguably robbing Ted Williams, who hit .406 on the season, of what should have been Williams’s first such honor.  How could this happen, you ask?  Well, there are a number of reasons, one of which was DiMaggio’s media darling reputation and the fact that he had been around the League (in heroic form) three years longer than Williams.  It also helped that the Yankees won the pennant and that the Red Sox finished second.

Two questions immediately come to mind: 1) Who had the better season? and 2) Which feat — hitting safely in 56 consecutive games or hitting .406 on the season — is the more impressive feat?  I won’t engage in discussing whether Williams was more deserving of the MVP since the Yanks went to the playoffs and the Sox went home (nothing like last year’s Ortiz-Rodriguez travesty). 

I’ll dispatch with the better season question first.  As always, let’s take a look at the numbers:

Williams

143 G, 456 AB, 135 R, 185 H, 37 HR, 120 RBI,  2 SB,  4 CS, 147 BB, 335 TB,
.406 BA, .553 OBP, .735 SLG, 1.288 OPS

DiMaggio

139 G, 541 AB, 122 R, 193 H, 30 HR, 125 RBI,  4 SB,  2 CS, 76 BB, 348 TB,
.357 BA, .440 OBP, .643 SLG, 1.083 OPS

At the outset, I should point out that these are both MVP-level seasons in any year (at least when Barry Bonds isn’t juicing to the performance-enhanced tune of a 1.450 OPS).  We see that the two all-time greats drove in and scored similar numbers of runs, though these are objectively poor, albeit popular, metrics of individual performance.  Williams and DiMaggio both had a lot of opportunites to drive in runs hitting the middle of their respective orders with plenty of opportunity to be driven in themselves once on base.  From a team standpoint, however, these are the only offensive stats that matter because they represent how many times the team scores.  In that sense, then they may be valid measures for consideration in MVP voting since the MVP award is supposed to be awarded to the player who was most valuable in helping his team win ballgames. 

But we asked who had the better season, not who should have been the MVP, so what about the numbers that do matter to that determination?  Defense and baserunning aside, it really all comes down to OPS.  As any astute student of the game (or maybe even just a reasonably intelligent person who was just given the rules of the game but was previously locked away in a fallout bunker from birth with zero exposure to baseball or its writing and reporting) can tell you, the most important thing to do when you are at bat (certain necessary sacrifice situations notwithstanding) is not make an out.  For that reason, on base percentage, or the percentage of time one does not make an out, is of paramount importance.  Beyond that, it is better to homer than it is to triple, which is better than it is to double, which is better than it is to single or walk.  After all, the closer you are to home, the easier it is for you to score a run, which is the ultimate goal.  For that reason, slugging percentage, or the number of total bases one achieves per at bat, is also of great importance.  Adding the two together to get OPS (On-base Plus Slugging), as has become chic in recent years, provides a nifty snapshot of offensive total value.  Even OPS is not perfect, however, as it too incorporates data that is attributable significantly to luck (i.e., hits), but it is the best non-adjusted, readily available stat that’s out there.

With a staggering 1.288 OPS, Williams recorded the seventh highest single-season OPS in history — and, more significantly, the fourth highest ever when we subtract out Barry Bonds’s drug-induced performances of 2001, 2002, and 2004.  The only other player to record a higher OPS than Williams in 1941 was Babe Ruth.  (Of note, Williams’s career OPS was 1.1155; Ruth’s was 1.1638.)  DiMaggio, at 1.083, is not even in the top 100 all-time, single-season performances.  (For his career, DiMaggio ranks 14th at .9771.)  Incredibly, Williams could have not drawn a single walk the entire season (in fact, he drew 147) and still finished with a higher OPS than DiMaggio on the back of that .406 batting average.  Williams’s .553 OBP is the third highest in history behind only Bonds tainted performances of 2002 and 2004, and his .735 slugging ranks 17th (with four Bonds-owned, tainted performances as well as one from McGwire in 1998).

In short, there is little question that Williams had the better season.  Based on his titanic OPS, it was arguably among top five most historic of all-time to boot — and this is without giving additional weight to being the last man to hit .400!

Now, for the second question.  What’s more impressive — hitting .406 or a 56-game hitting streak?  Well, it depends on how you define "impressive."  If you are impressed by people winning millions of dollars in the lottery, then you may be more jazzed about the streak.  If on the other hand, you are more impressed by someone who earns millions of dollars through hard work and skill, then surely you are more impressed by the .406 mark.  The truth is, a .406 hitter with 600 at bats actually has a 0.0333% or about 1 in 3,000 chance of hitting in 56 consecutive games, though Williams actually saw far fewer at bats per game because of his walks, which actually bring his chances into line with a .350 hitter getting 600 AB. 

In any case, DiMaggio just got plain lucky in 1941.  Hitting at a .406 rate over the course of an entire season is far more impressive than hitting .357 over the same span.  Of course, it’s also reasonable to assume that both hitters were relatively lucky that year in that they achieved career-high BAs substantially above their career averages.  Making good contact is the fundamental objective of hitting, but good contact hardly guarantees a hit.  Most of that is attributable to the good fortune of hitting the ball to an area where it cannot be caught on the fly or where it can be fielded for a putout.  Thus, in any given season, a hitter or a pitcher may be more or less lucky with respect to where the ball falls, resulting in substantial variance in BA and ERA (hence their less favored status predictive performance metrics).

An old baseball proverb advises, "Hit ‘em where they ain’t."  As anyone who’s ever played the game knows, getting this done at all, much less once or more per game 56 times in a row, is up to the fickle gods of baseball.

In rousing fashion, the Boston Red Sox won their home opener before a wild sell-out crowd at Fenway Park, 5-3 over the Toronto Blue Jays.  Josh Beckett overcame a wild first inning to go seven strong in his first home start, allowing just one earned run, and Mike Lowell had a stellar debut, smacking 3 doubles to go with a single for a 4-4 performance.  Adam Stern, capably filling in again for injured Coco Crisp, added a double and two RBI and stole third before scoring, and David Ortiz hit his second home run of the season.

The Sox did most of their damage in the second inning, answering with four runs on three doubles (Lowell, Stern, and Youkilis) off Toronto starter Josh Towers, after Beckett walked in a run in the first.  Ortiz added a solo shot to put Boston up 5-1 in the seventh.

Beckett threw 36 pitches in the first frame, recording one out then allowing a walk, a single, a walk, and another walk to score what would be Toronto’s lone run of the Sox starter.  The initial damage could have been worse, but Beckett forced a huge inning-ending double play with the bases loaded and only one out, leaving the mound yelling (mostly in anger at his own wildness).

Beckett cruised through the second through the sixth, allowing just three baserunners.  In the third, fourth, fifth, and sixth, Beckett faced the minimum — thanks in part to an unusal 4-6-3 double play that erased Lyle Overbay in the fourth.  On that play, Loretta leapt for Bengie Molina’s liner, knocking the ball in the air in the general vicinity of second base, and acrobat Alex Gonzalez made a heads up play by grabbing the ball, stepping on second, and making the throw to first.

After Ortiz’s solo shot in the bottom of the seventh, Keith Foulke relieved Beckett to start the eighth.  Foulke was unfortunately unable to build on his two prior solid outings, allowing a two-run home run to Frank Catalanotto after a Russ Adams single, though the home run was indubitably the result of a miscue by Wily Mo Pena.  With Nixon taken out after three innings with a slight groin strain sustained on an awkward and unsuccessful diving play in right (that he should not have attempted), Pena misplayed a deep fly ball to right into a homer when the ball tipped off his glove just before he hit the low bullpen wall in right and bounced over. 

Still, it would have been better for Foulke not to play it so close by giving up the long drive.  Foulke’s struggles are not a good sign for the veteran’s effort to return to the closer role, but in fairness, he has pitched just 8 innings to major leaguers this year including the spring.  As always, locating the fastball will be key for Foulke’s return to form, but his increased velocity (88 on Sunday) is a positive sign.

With the score 5-3 heading to the ninth, Francona again called on Jon Papelbon, who entered to Bruce Springtein’s "Glory Days."  And a glorious day it was for the young hurler, as he pitched a perfect inning to nail down his fourth save in as many chances and his first at Fenway Park.

David Wells makes his season debut in the second game of the three-game set against Toronto tonight.  Clement will start the finale on Thursday.  The Sox stand alone at 6-1 atop the A.L. East. with the rest of the division, including the Yankees who rallied to win 9-7 yesterday, three games back.

The Boston Red Sox jumped out to a 5-1 early season record heading into today’s home opener by dispatching with the Orioles by way of a three-game sweep over the weekend.  Curt Schilling had another dominant performance, allowing only three hits and two walks in seven strong innings for the 2-1 win on Saturday, while Tim Wakefiled rebounded nicely from a dreadful outing in Texas (as did Josh Bard with zero passed balls) to win the series finale on Sunday.

Jon Papelbon also looked strong with two saves in the series.  The 25-year-old right hander appears to be getting the call to close games.  At least for as long as it takes Keith Foulke to return to top form — assuming that does happen.  Foulke did pitch a perfect eighth on Sunday (and a one-hit ninth on Friday in a non-save situation).  Foulke’s fastball topped out at 88 mph in his last appearance.  Manager Terry Francona said, "That’s as good as I’ve seen him look in a long time."  While the Sox skipper has gone to Papelbon in the last three save chances, he has not officially named the youngster the closer — a smart move, as the Sox are a better team IF Foulke can take back the closer’s role by regaining his 2004 form.  Papelbon will ultimately be more valueable to the team as a starter, particularly with Craign Hansen as the closer of the future.

On the down side this weekend, Coco Crisp suffered a non-displaced fracture at the base of his left index finger sliding into third on Saturday.  Crisp is expected to miss at least two weeks and will be placed on the 15-day DL today, but the injury is not considered to be too serious.  The Sox trainer said that once Crisp shows sufficient healing (after spending ten days in a splint) he will be able to resume baseball activities.

Albeit sans their new centerfielder, the Sox kick off their home schedule today in the newly revamped Fenway Park at 2:05 pm against Toronto.  Josh Beckett will face Josh Towers.  There is little question that the firey competitor, Beckett, will be up for this game.  The Sox hurler and native Texan looked superb in his debut against the Rangers.  Beckett pitched about 4 hours from his home town and showed his trademark competitive fire when he shouted and pumped his fist to strike out Michael Young finishing the 7th inning in his April 5th win with his 109th pitch.  Beckett had informed pitching coach Al Nipper that he had 110 pitches in him for his debut.

Friday’s projected starter, Schilling, appeared on WEEI this morning to comment on the Red Sox early season results.  Asked if the team was performing even better than expected at 5-1, Schilling responded, "No.  Not better than I expected."  The Sox ace noted that this year’s team was, in many ways, even stronger than the 2004 World Series Championship edition.  Schilling noted that Boston is a deeper team both in pitching and offensively.  Addressing Crisp’s injury, Schilling said that while Crisp is "as good as any leadoff hitter in baseball," the Red Sox were in a great position with players to step up for him off the bench.  He predicted that while Crisp, like Damon did, will drive a potent offense, that the team will be just fine as he recovers.  Adam Stern’s two hits and two RBI in his start in center for Crisp on Sunday drove home the point.  With Wily Mo Pena also coming off the bench and able to fill in, the Sox have terrific depth.

Schilling also had some interesting comments about his performance thus far versus projections made by baseball pundits.  A hero of the 2004 Championship team who pitched the Sox to two key victories with an injured ankle tendon temporarily stitched into place, Schilling was pleased to prove so many baseball writers and commentators wrong by returning to top form in his first two starts with velocity and control that was absent last season as he recovered.  Schilling told the radio program that he was amused by negative forecasts for his season, noting that he was amazed how so many purported experts could consistently say wrong-headed things year after year and still be considered experts.  Schilling opined that many of these journalists don’t know any more than the average fan and that they likely knew less than the average fan in Boston, an avid baseball town.  (Though the latter statement may well be an exaggeration, I do agree with Schilling in principle.  I am apalled by they ignorance that prevails in much of baseball journalism.  I hope, that is why you are reading this blog.)

While it is reassuring to see Schilling back to form and such promising results from many Red Sox newcomers, Toronto will likely present a tougher challenge than in years past with its revamped lineup.  Though A.J. Burnett is not scheduled to make his first Blue Jays start until April 16th, Toronto newly features  lefted closer B.J. Ryan (formerly of Baltimore), slugger Troy Glaus (Arizona), first baseman Lyle Overbay (Milwaukee), and backstop Bengie Molina (LA Angels).  Whatever the pundits have predicted (many a Blue Jays second-place finish), there are strong early indications — namely Schilling’s return to form and fulfilled promise of newcomers — that the Red Sox are going to sit atop the standings in the A.L. East this season (with sputtering start New York also besting Toronto for your money).

And so begins the first homestand.  It’s a long season — stay tuned…

The Red Sox took two of three from the Rangers in an impressive opening series on the road that gave resoundingly positive answers to a few of the off season’s questions. 

Curt Schilling was dominant in his first start, winning the Sox opener at Arlington with 7 strong innings, yielding 2 earned runs on 5 hits and 1 walk, while striking out 5.  Schilling relied mostly on a fastball that sat in the low- to mid-90s through the early innings before picking up speed as the game drew on, topping out at 96 mph.  So much for questions about Schilling’s ability to regain velocity on his fastball.  Trouble hitters in the A.L. when Schilling’s splitter gets going.  Worse news: He’s learning a changeup.

Josh Beckett was equally impressive in his Red Sox debut last night, beating Kameron Loe in a pitchers duel with 7 innings of 7-hit, 1-walk ball and 5 strikeouts.  Beckett overcame a tough start of 81 pitches over four innings before retiring 12 of the last 13 batters.  Beckett consistently pumped 95-96 mph fastball into the strike zone and past the Rangers, including reigning A.L. batting champ, Michael Young, to end the 7th on a helpless check swing.

Out of the bullpen, Keith Foulke struggled in a mopup outing in game one of the series.  Foulke was clearly having trouble locating his fastball, which should come as little surprise after only 4 innings of work in spring training, but is a problem he can hardly afford when throwing only in the upper-80s.  Jon Papelbon got the call in the ninth of a 2-1 ballgame in game three, retiring the side in order with 2 Ks and a weak popup to short for his first career save.  After the game, Foulke said all the right things, displaying a real team attitude.  Francona was non-commital, indicating that he had spoken to Foulke before the game and noting that Pap might get the call in a tight game.  Rightfully, Francona noted that part of his job is to get Foulke the work he needs to reach top form, while still making sure the Sox win games.  Right now that means calling on Papelbon when the game is on the line.  Foulke will likely come around once he gets a better feel for locating his fastball.  Getting it back to 89-90 will be a plus.

Offensively, David Ortiz was up to his old tricks, crushing a Kevin Millwood offering in game one for a home run that would have landed somewhere in Mexico if the top of the right field foul pole didn’t get in the way. 

Of greater curiosity value, Coco Crisp has had a stellar first series in a Red Sox uniform, going 5 for 14 with a double, a triple, and a stolen base and making a superb jumping catch running toward the wall in deep center.  The former Indians left fielder is going to have absolutely no trouble making the transition to center.  Crisp showed his top-notch speed not only in the outfield but also on the basepaths, and it certainly looks like the speedy Red Sox centerfielder will have the green light this season to steal at will.  He made some excellent jumps this week, and has the wheels to follow through.  With patient precisionist Mark Loretta hitting behind him, Crisp will have his share of steals.

Loretta himself had a great series, going 5 for 13 with a double and a walk.  Hitting in front of Ortiz and Manny and sporting a career .366 OBP, Loretta will score 115 runs easily this season.  He’s also a solid second baseman who figures to anchor an excellent middle infield along with acrobat Alex Gonzalez, who had 2 hits in his Red Sox debut.  Mike Lowell, who turned up the heat at the end of the spring session to up his average to .327 (with .473 SLG), had a home run in game one but was otherwise quiet in the series.  His performance bears monitoring, though his turnaround this spring was promising.

The one real low point of the series was Tim Wakefield’s continued struggles at Ameriquest field (and Josh Bard’s struggles catching the knuckler — 3 passed balls), resulting in the Sox loss in game two of the three-game set.  This should be of little concern, however, moving forward and away from Texas.  Bard has some learning on the job to do, but this should not be cause for alarm.

The Sox look to take sole possession of first place in the young 2006 season as they return to the East Coast to play division rival Baltimore (tied with the Sox for first at 2-1).  The action starts Friday with Matt Clement facing off against young Dominican slinger Daniel Cabrera.  It should be a good matchup with Clement throwing the ball well and Cabrera coming off a strong second half last season and now under the tutelage of former Braves pitching coach extraordinaire, Leo Mazzone.  Stay tuned.

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By the way, as I write this post, Felix Rodriguez and Frank Robinson were just thrown out of the game when Rodriguez hit Paul LoDuca after a Jose Reyes triple.  Meanwhile, Pedro Martinez had hit THREE Nationals in his six innings, including Jose Guillen twice, which prompted a near brawl.  Warnings were issued to both teams.  After relieving Pedro, Duaner Sanchez began the seventh by striking out Guillen before promptly plunking Nick Johnson, who had clubbed a three-run homer off Pedro to tie the game at 5 after being struck by Pedro in his previous at bat.  Amazingly, Sanchez was not tossed.  (Even after warnings are issued, it is still discretionary as to whether an ump will toss a pitcher and manager for a subsequent HBP.)  Needless to say, Robinson went volcanic when he and Rodriguez were tossed for hitting LoDuca after that.  I am amused.